ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Risk scoring in predicting preterm birth of women receiving cervical cerclage

Chro Najmaddin Fattah

Chro Najmaddin Fattah
Consultant Obstetricain/Gynaecologyist, Sulaimani Maternity teaching Hospital; Assistant professor, Head of Department Obstetrics/Gynaecology, College of Medicine, Unveristy of Sulaimani, Sulaimani, Kurdistan Region- Iraq. Email: chrofattah@yahoo.co.uk
Online First: December 01, 2020 | Cite this Article
Fattah, C. 2020. Risk scoring in predicting preterm birth of women receiving cervical cerclage. Bali Medical Journal 9(3): 605-612. DOI:10.15562/bmj.v9i3.1821


Background: Cervical incompetence is primarily a clinical diagnosis, which is characterized by recurrent painless dilation of cervix and spontaneous second trimester loss and preterm delivery. Despite recent advances, the indications and efficacy of cervical cerclage have been remained controversial. This study was performed with the aim of evaluating the risk factors of preterm birth among women who underwent cervical cerclage and establishing a scoring system to predict preterm labor in this group of women.

Material and Methods: This retrospective cohort study was performed on 95 women who had undergone cervical cerclage from January 2016 to January 2018 in Maternity Teaching Hospital of Sulaimaniyah, Iraq. A total of 66 women who delivered after 34 weeks were used as control group, compared to 29 cases who delivered before 34 weeks.

Results: According to the findings of the present study, there was a significant association between the preterm birth before the 34 weeks of pregnancy and the risk factors of pathological vaginal discharge, cervical length less than 25 mm prior to cerclage placement, and passive smoking. The positive predictive value was calculated using the prediction model was %99 with a risk score of 3, 47.6% with risk score 2 and 28.2 % with risk score 1.

Conclusion: The prediction model can be used as a tool to identify patients at a higher risk for PTD <34 weeks and to recognize those that could benefit from cerclage and deliver after 34 weeks. It could also be a useful tool for identifying those high risk women with cerclage who require increased surveillance.

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